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Top analyst predicts GM, Ford will overtake Tesla in EV market share by 2025


DETROIT — Beset by increasing competition, Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicle market share is expected to plummet from a dominating 70 percent today to just 11 percent by 2025 as incumbents such as General Motors and Ford overtake it, according to the annual ‘Car Wars’ study.

John Murphy, a senior auto analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said he expects GM and Ford to each have roughly 15 percent EV market share by 2025 behind the strength of new products like the F-150 Lightning and upcoming Chevrolet Silverado EV, which he said would represent about a 10 percent market share jump from where both automakers stand now.

“That dominance Tesla’s had in the EV market, particularly in the U.S., is done,” Murphy said at an Automotive Press Association event here. “It’s going to shift wildly in the opposite direction in the next four years.”

This year’s “Car Wars” study predicts that roughly 60 percent of new nameplates by the 2026 model year will either be EV or hybrid. Murphy said Thursday he expects EV sales to rise to at least 10 percent of the U.S. sales market by that period, although there’s room for greater growth.

Murphy said Tesla is not expanding its portfolio quickly enough to keep up with both incumbent automakers and new startups that are ramping up their own electric portfolios.

“[CEO Elon Musk] has had a vacuum for the last 10 years in which to operate where there hasn’t been much competition that’s come in,” Murphy said. “That vacuum is now being filled in a massive way over the next four years by very good product.”

Tesla’s upcoming Cybertruck has been delayed multiple times and is now scheduled to come out sometime next year, while plans for its next-generation Roadster have also been pushed back.

In the meantime, both Ford and GM executives have said they plan to challenge Tesla for the title of No. 1 EV-maker later this decade. Ford says it will build 2 million EVs globally by 2026 while GM says it will have more than 2 million units of EV capacity in North America and China combined through 2025.

“[Elon] didn’t move fast enough,” Murphy said. “He had tremendous hubris that [other automakers] would never catch him and would never be able to do what he’s doing, and they’re doing it.”

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